excellent piece -- and it articulates something that enraged me that leaders of her campaign team said soon after the election on a podcast -- that the reason why Harris spent so little time actually attacking Trump's RECORD was because, according to surveys/focus groups, "attitudes toward Trump were baked in".
Now, the reality is that all the campaign had to do was look at public polling to see that Trump's favorability rating was highly volatile -- with a spread of -19.7 points when he left office, which improved to only -5.5 points by April '22, and on Jan 3, 2024, it stood at -14.9 points. When Biden withdrew his candidacy, it was at -10.9 points, and by the time the election was held, it had improved to -7.0 points. (source https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump)
IOW, a significant part of the electorate become more favorably disposed toward Trump during the campaign, largely because people were not being constantly reminded of how awful Trump is. And THAT explains why Harris' focus on Project 2025 fell flat -- that message only resonated with people who already assumed the worst about Trump; to the rest of the electorate, it was just campaign season rhetoric.
Excellent article! Rather than polls, I suggest that Democrats look at and take to heart the millions of signs that have appeared at rallies. People express their passionate stances in the signs they hold - they will vote based on these issues.
Every week for the past 20 weeks or so I attend a gathering at the ICE Field office. Every week the organizer asks "How many people are here for the first time?" and usually around 50 people raise their hands. Standing with immigrants is important and is a message that spreads.
Thanks for articulating something -- that highlights a dilemma I feel. On the one hand, I want to support the resistance to MAGA and the election of Democrats, and I have some wherewithal to do so. On the other hand, deluged with a daily dose of paper push polls, out of the blue texts, and endless junk mail driven by what I now know is pollingism, I find myself convinced that sending money to the traditional central Democratic actors is basically like pouring water into the sand... it will just be wasted (at least in part by keeping the consultants that run the endless polls well employed). I do what seems to make sense in other ways, but really: here I sit, ready to send a check, but the people I would normally send it to sound unconvincing, stale, and appear to be wasting what I send on mailing me more fat paper letters from Chuck Schumer every day.
excellent piece -- and it articulates something that enraged me that leaders of her campaign team said soon after the election on a podcast -- that the reason why Harris spent so little time actually attacking Trump's RECORD was because, according to surveys/focus groups, "attitudes toward Trump were baked in".
Now, the reality is that all the campaign had to do was look at public polling to see that Trump's favorability rating was highly volatile -- with a spread of -19.7 points when he left office, which improved to only -5.5 points by April '22, and on Jan 3, 2024, it stood at -14.9 points. When Biden withdrew his candidacy, it was at -10.9 points, and by the time the election was held, it had improved to -7.0 points. (source https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump)
IOW, a significant part of the electorate become more favorably disposed toward Trump during the campaign, largely because people were not being constantly reminded of how awful Trump is. And THAT explains why Harris' focus on Project 2025 fell flat -- that message only resonated with people who already assumed the worst about Trump; to the rest of the electorate, it was just campaign season rhetoric.
Thanks! Totally agree. The task was (1) here are the evils to come (2) yes they will occur (3) yes it all has to do with Trump.
“What convinces masses are not facts, and not even invented facts, but only the consistency of the system of which they are presumably part.”
—Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism
Excellent article! Rather than polls, I suggest that Democrats look at and take to heart the millions of signs that have appeared at rallies. People express their passionate stances in the signs they hold - they will vote based on these issues.
Every week for the past 20 weeks or so I attend a gathering at the ICE Field office. Every week the organizer asks "How many people are here for the first time?" and usually around 50 people raise their hands. Standing with immigrants is important and is a message that spreads.
An excellent read. Very helpful .
☠️GET WITH IT DEMS!
Thanks for articulating something -- that highlights a dilemma I feel. On the one hand, I want to support the resistance to MAGA and the election of Democrats, and I have some wherewithal to do so. On the other hand, deluged with a daily dose of paper push polls, out of the blue texts, and endless junk mail driven by what I now know is pollingism, I find myself convinced that sending money to the traditional central Democratic actors is basically like pouring water into the sand... it will just be wasted (at least in part by keeping the consultants that run the endless polls well employed). I do what seems to make sense in other ways, but really: here I sit, ready to send a check, but the people I would normally send it to sound unconvincing, stale, and appear to be wasting what I send on mailing me more fat paper letters from Chuck Schumer every day.