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J E Ross's avatar

That conversation was paradigm-shifting for me. Every 5 minutes, I heard myself go, “Ohhhhhhh!!” I mean, I understood that the Phyllis Schhlafly “Moral Majority” moment of the late 70s, early 80s had borne unholy fruit in MAGA populism and subsequently in the freaking cabinet of the U. S. government, but I did not understand how exactly. I didn’t draw the logical conclusion of socialized conservatism in red states’ statehouses projecting in its uneven manner a false sense of kind of a right-wing shadow falling over the entire Senate. Yikes and double yikes! But it is so helpful to have that click into place, along with the very clear delineation of what poll questions mean vs. what poll responders think they mean, all w/in the framework of a budget that requires sustaining and therefore magnifies clickable conclusions. Wow. Well done, gentlemen! Thank you!

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Carl Selfe's avatar

The CBO errs greatly in its analysis of the Big Beautiful Bill. Their starting point misses $1.5 trillion in the first 2 years.

1) First CBO overlooks that the first 2 years will be impacted by budget additions with no offset until the 2028 tax year. The annual deficit will be $2.5 trillion over each of the next 2 years. They estimated those deficits to be $1.8 and 1.7 trillion, instead of $5 trillion that must be borrowed at higher interest rates than CBO uses.

2) CBO uses 3.5% interest on Treasury bonds. That is far below the 4.91% that we current “enjoy” due to falling worldwide buyer-investor confidence.

3) CBO says inflation will be calculated at 2% when it now 2.4%. Tariffs will hit inflation hard!

4) That is how they get to saying hogwash like $2 trillion ADDED over 10 years.

5) CBO did not tell you they are talking about ADDED to their $52 Trillion estimate for 2035.

6) They see $54 trillion as our total outstanding deficit in 2035. I see $56 trillion if Republicans cut $13 trillion with the Big Beautiful Bill.

We need a tax cut like we need a hole in the head. The fiscal irresponsibility is unfathomable. Republicans have lost their minds.

https://hotbuttons.substack.com/p/the-25-trillion-annual-deficit-plan?r=3m1bs

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Jay Morris's avatar

Regarding your Two Americas Theory, I live in Llano,Tx , what I guess you might call a Reverse Oreo county. Thin layer of sane democracy surrounded by a thick, sticky layer of red crazy! I'm almost 70 and just voted for a Republican for the first time in my life! I would not feel safe putting up a Democrat's lawn sign out and will not wear my Beto shirt in town.I guess my tent could take in a few R's, but they will have to sign a Never Trump pledge.

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Jen Hero's avatar

Data has worked so well for the DNC /s

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Jay Morris's avatar

If you read the book, you will appreciate the complexity of how to actually do polls, and more importantly how to read them.

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Jun 4
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