G. Elliott Morris’s Substack, Strength in Numbers, does something that’s too rare in journalism—data-driven political coverage that’s about the real-world stakes of politics, not just the superficial ups and downs of the data itself.
I had a great conversation with Elliott on Substack Live on Monday about this approach and his latest piece, “Not all Trump voters ‘voted for this.’” As we see more real-world evidence that many Trump voters didn’t understand what he’d actually do if elected, it’s more important than ever to understand why mainstream polling coverage tends to misread and misrepresent public opinion.
We discussed some of the reasons for that misreading, including:
superficial poll questions that presume too much about how voters will interpret those questions;
polls being covered by general reporters instead of people with public opinion expertise;
the structural, financial, and ideological incentives that keep many media outlets from doing better;
and more.
We also talked about how the real barrier to Democrats retaking the Senate isn’t about their messages or ideological positions, but the structural fact that America is really two nations.
Please watch, share, and let us know what you think!
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