This is the absolute best thing I have ever read on polling. Superb! I will be recommending it in my newsletter this evening to my subscribers. Keep up the good work!
One very minor quibble as the author of the now infamous racial realignment chart:
That chart (which on balance I regret making) didn’t actually appear in my article on the topic (non-paywalled link here https://on.ft.com/4dyARFJ), and wasn’t really part of my argument. The argument in the article *was* based on results at the ballot box, not from polls during the campaign, and the key chart is the second one down (or see here https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198845321044213), and the realignment I talked about in the piece (and the Twitter thread) is the increasing tendency of Black voters to vote in line with their stated ideology, which is a pattern that has been unfolding clearly and steadily since 2012.
As I said on the 538 podcast shortly afterwards, that pattern was by no means destined to continue. But it was something that had been playing out over several election cycles, not just a phantom trend only appearing in intra-election polls.
Excellent. Thanks for putting into words the reasons for the unease so many of us have about polls. I long ago stopped worrying about them, beyond recognizing that a substantial group of Americans seem inexplicably to prefer authoritarianism over democracy. That substantial group must be fought diligently, but the fact that it is substantial and much talked about doesn't make it inevitably a WINNING group. That is up to the rest of us Americans who actually believe in the value of the experiment that started almost 250 years ago.
Great article. Also is questioned how the polling is done. Are they calling phone/landlines, going on social media, using emails. On that our population differs greatly on how we communicate especially generation wise. Younger people tend not to use phones and rely on social media, even email is not an across the board way to communicate. Also factors such as size of poll and where polling took place (rural vs urban) are also factors. I can sum this all up with one of my favorite quotes "There are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics" Benjamin Disraeli
Excellent read. In some parts, it reminded me of Tom Burgis's book Kleptopia. There is a possible future where the Thiels of the world use their influence (donations) to monopolize whatever unforeseen technological frontier is on the horizon.
Keep it as vague as possible, or misdirect on thorny issues. Allow the electorate to project onto powerful but open slogans that engender "emotions" of hope for oneself in tandem with fear of the other (loss).
It's the template devised by Pavlovsky in the 1996 and 2000 Russian elections, and later adapted for use by Brexit leader Dominic Cummings in the UK's 2016 EU referendum. Despite being one of the few to know what was technically feasible as an EU exit strategy Cummings decided "There is much to be gained by swerving the whole issue".
(From: This is Not Propaganda by Peter Pomerantsev)
"Pavlovsky experimented with a different approach to assembling a winning electorate...
‘You collect them for a short period, literally for a moment, but so that they all vote together for one person. To do this you need to build a fairy tale that will be common to all of them." The disparate groups needed to be unified around a central emotion, a feeling powerful enough to unite all of them yet vague enough to mean anything to anyone.
So for all those insisting on nailing Harris down to specific policies, be aware that you might well be nailing down your own democratic coffin lid. MAGA support or inclination runs on emotion appeal and is moralistic rather than empirical (ref. What Is Populism? - Jan-Werner Müller) Hence, why populist leaders around the world put into smearing the character of their opponents - it ain't just Trump does this. Victimhood likewise is another major populist strategy - your psychologists are wasting their time classifying Trump as a malignant narcissist.
“The power of the populist is, somehow, to turn utter entitlement into victimhood.”
@maitlis
You'll lose if Harris allows policy to weaken emotional impact.
This is the absolute best thing I have ever read on polling. Superb! I will be recommending it in my newsletter this evening to my subscribers. Keep up the good work!
Michael — great post as ever.
One very minor quibble as the author of the now infamous racial realignment chart:
That chart (which on balance I regret making) didn’t actually appear in my article on the topic (non-paywalled link here https://on.ft.com/4dyARFJ), and wasn’t really part of my argument. The argument in the article *was* based on results at the ballot box, not from polls during the campaign, and the key chart is the second one down (or see here https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198845321044213), and the realignment I talked about in the piece (and the Twitter thread) is the increasing tendency of Black voters to vote in line with their stated ideology, which is a pattern that has been unfolding clearly and steadily since 2012.
As I said on the 538 podcast shortly afterwards, that pattern was by no means destined to continue. But it was something that had been playing out over several election cycles, not just a phantom trend only appearing in intra-election polls.
Excellent. Thanks for putting into words the reasons for the unease so many of us have about polls. I long ago stopped worrying about them, beyond recognizing that a substantial group of Americans seem inexplicably to prefer authoritarianism over democracy. That substantial group must be fought diligently, but the fact that it is substantial and much talked about doesn't make it inevitably a WINNING group. That is up to the rest of us Americans who actually believe in the value of the experiment that started almost 250 years ago.
Thank you!
Great article. Also is questioned how the polling is done. Are they calling phone/landlines, going on social media, using emails. On that our population differs greatly on how we communicate especially generation wise. Younger people tend not to use phones and rely on social media, even email is not an across the board way to communicate. Also factors such as size of poll and where polling took place (rural vs urban) are also factors. I can sum this all up with one of my favorite quotes "There are three types of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics" Benjamin Disraeli
Thanks!
Excellent read. In some parts, it reminded me of Tom Burgis's book Kleptopia. There is a possible future where the Thiels of the world use their influence (donations) to monopolize whatever unforeseen technological frontier is on the horizon.
Thanks!
Great analysis! What about the lack of communication / interviews from Kamala and Walz? Is it part of the plan? I am getting nervous.
Keep it as vague as possible, or misdirect on thorny issues. Allow the electorate to project onto powerful but open slogans that engender "emotions" of hope for oneself in tandem with fear of the other (loss).
It's the template devised by Pavlovsky in the 1996 and 2000 Russian elections, and later adapted for use by Brexit leader Dominic Cummings in the UK's 2016 EU referendum. Despite being one of the few to know what was technically feasible as an EU exit strategy Cummings decided "There is much to be gained by swerving the whole issue".
(From: This is Not Propaganda by Peter Pomerantsev)
"Pavlovsky experimented with a different approach to assembling a winning electorate...
‘You collect them for a short period, literally for a moment, but so that they all vote together for one person. To do this you need to build a fairy tale that will be common to all of them." The disparate groups needed to be unified around a central emotion, a feeling powerful enough to unite all of them yet vague enough to mean anything to anyone.
So for all those insisting on nailing Harris down to specific policies, be aware that you might well be nailing down your own democratic coffin lid. MAGA support or inclination runs on emotion appeal and is moralistic rather than empirical (ref. What Is Populism? - Jan-Werner Müller) Hence, why populist leaders around the world put into smearing the character of their opponents - it ain't just Trump does this. Victimhood likewise is another major populist strategy - your psychologists are wasting their time classifying Trump as a malignant narcissist.
“The power of the populist is, somehow, to turn utter entitlement into victimhood.”
@maitlis
You'll lose if Harris allows policy to weaken emotional impact.
regards to you all.
Top notch analysis, as usual.
Thanks!