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Natalie Burdick's avatar

We all forget, or maybe aren't aware of two realities, that should ALSO be considered in terms of retrospective spasms when it comes to the 2024 election.

1) In 2024 (as in 2020 and before that in 2016), Tr*mp did not secure even 50% of the popular vote. More people voted for candidates NOT Tr*mp than for him. Which means despite NEVER once winning an actual majority of the popular vote in three elections, our flawed system has still allowed him to be put into the office of the Presidency...twice(!).

Further, when you consider the voting eligible population, and that over 30% did NOT vote in any three of those elections, you see that his share of the electorate has not only missed the 50% mark, but even the 33% threshold! What we do know, is that in three elections 12 million more Americans chose to vote for someone NOT Tr*mp. That's the clear (super) majority speaking.

Reference source: https://election.lab.ufl.edu/voter-turnout/

2) But, if that margin doesn't seem high enough given the naked racism, nativism, sexism and LGBTQ-hatred that are hallmarks of Tr*mp/MAGA's kleptocracy (a corrupt government of wannabe mob bosses extorting everyone from universities and law firms, to wholesale industries and countries), keep in mind that between 2020 and 2022, 19 million Americans were systematically purged from voter rolls; in 2024 alone, that number was 4.7 million.

Reference source: https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/ensure-every-american-can-vote/vote-suppression/voter-purges

Before we go around looking for reasons to blame the outcome of the election (primarily) on what individual Democratic electeds and/or the Democratic party writ large did or did not do (which, trust me, I have no interest in defending per se), let's please not lose sight of the effect of outright voter suppression and disenfranchisement that has been core to the Repub's playbook since Bush v. Gore in 2000, and has ONLY accelerated under Shelby v. County and the January 6 Big Lie to undermine what free and fair elections we still have.

Solutions will always be inadequate, if we don't recognize and address ALL the root causes of the fascist takeover underway, not just the pet causes, which the media/punditry/consulting class adulate.

Tr*mp and MAGA are a truly, unpopular minority (polls tell us that, but polls don't get to the heart of just how much they are an aberration, as Mike so eloquently explained in today's Substack Live). It is literally a case of the Emperor's New Clothes. The media sane-washes and normalizes the horrors we're seeing, but that makes them no less horrific: abductions, human trafficking, and imprisonment in foreign concentration camps. Seriously, this is where we are?

We must not forget WE—the people who are FOR the freedoms to decide if/when/or how to start or grow our families, to earn a living wage, to read and learn about the truth of our past, to afford healthcare, to realize our personal dreams, and to love who we love—WE are the supermajority and WE have the agency and power stand up and fight back.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

P.S. Footnote #5 simply the pièce de résistance!

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

You are 100% correct, but it does not matter. The fix is in until the human race dies out, which I hope will be soon.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

Ouch.

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Rob Wilson's avatar

It CAN matter if the Democrats sweep the midterms next year, and if people continue to protest more and more vociferously, in creative and effective actions that make MAGATS very uncomfortable.

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Alan Peterson's avatar

Hope humanity waits until after my family and I live the lives we hope for 🙂.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

Good luck with that--the first election of Trump means that the end will come by 2050--certainly no later than 2100. By that time, all humans will be dead.

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

While insightful, the essay on the "anti-MAGA majority" overlooks crucial variables impacting the Democratic Party's struggles. It fails to adequately address the internal failures of Democratic consultants, whose often generic and out-of-touch strategies have yielded diminishing returns.

Furthermore, the analysis neglects the deterioration of the Democratic brand itself, which, for many, has become synonymous with an out-of-touch elite, especially coastal elite.

Finally, the essay sidesteps the undeniable decline of state and national party infrastructures, weakening grassroots organizing and voter engagement. These omissions paint an incomplete picture of the challenges facing the anti-MAGA coalition.

I write this as a life long D, former elected and appointed state official in Iowa.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

Hi Ralph,

I totally agree there's been a failure in the Democratic state party infrastructure in far too many places. But, I would argue there is some hope of progress.

For context, I think it all went to hell in a handbasket after 2010 and Karl Rove's Redmap.

Over 1,000 state legislative seats were gerrymandered away and that led to redistricting that not only locked in non-representative Repub majorities in states, it did the same for a number of Congressional districts (it's why we've had the likes of Marjorie Toilet Greene and Matt the Molester Gaetz).

In 2017 (when I started volunteering with a group called Sister District Project that focuses exclusively on state legislative elections), Dems controlled just six (6) trifectas, while Repubs had 25. We also only held 32 state chambers to their 67.

Today, Dems hold 15 trifectas and 39 chambers, while Repubs dropped to 23 and 57. That is slow, but steady progress (unlike the chaotic pendulum swings in the House, Senate and WH)!

And...if we can flip just 23 state legislative seats across five states in the next two years, 42.5 million more Americans will be protected by blue majorities.

We forget that in the 2024 election, despite the results at the top of the ballot, it was in state legislatures that Dems held on to tiny majorities in critical chambers like the Minnesota Senate and Pennsylvania House, picking up enough seats to break Repub supermajorities in Wisconsin, North Carolina and even Montana(!). Plus, we gained seats in the Georgia House—all in states that Tr*mp carried.

Bottom line: we did better than historical trends around presidential coattails and downballot roll-off would have predicted.

And since January 2025, there have now been at least 21 special elections for state legislative and Congressional races. Dems in those races have outperformed the 2024 election results by 12pts (vs. 11pts at same point in 2017).

That's not counting the major (historical) wins in the Wisconsin Judicial race and and several key Municipal races like the Mayor's races in Omaha, and the entire citywide slate in Lincoln.

There's a truism: when we vote, we (the supermajority of anti-MAGA Americans) win.

The issue is whether we CAN vote, and have all our votes counted.

The biggest failing of the Democratic party in my mind, is their unwillingness to fight an unabashed, full-throated battle, not only against the mendacity of Tr*mp and his MAGA minions, but against the steady attacks on our freedoms to vote (gerrymandering, voter suppression, voter disenfranchisement), and the creeping effort to undermine free and fair elections by all means, since Bush v. Gore.

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

Thanks Natalie and thanks for caring. I have hope. In my retirement, I am as active as I was in the 60's, probably more so. I have been writing in my Substack since last year offering constructive criticism to the formal D party in Iowa and elected leaders. Seeing gaps, a group of us are working to coordinate all the pop up new groups. I still think most of this country agrees with most of the D positions..and yes, even here in Iowa. We are bad at messaging. We are bad at fighting (as you note). We are even worse at explaining why we are fighting for the every day American. I am a boomer. I worry about younger people, like yourself and my sons in their 30's.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

From a piece I read a while ago:

"Most of us, I think, consider it a noun — something we get, something we have, a gift from the universe. But I think it’s a stronger word as a verb. Hope is something we do."

Freedoms and rights have never, EVER, been handed out by the powers that be...we've always had to work and fight for every single one: the end of enslavement, the end of child labor, the ability to vote (for all but white males), reproductive freedoms, marriage equality, even the most basic due process of habeas corpus -- it wasn't granted, it was demanded.

Dems spend too much time talking about policy, process, hypocrisy and what they are against, rather than 1) talking about what they are FOR in a way that resonates, 2) in the places where people today will hear it, and 3) with the discipline and repetition needed to break the signal through the noise.

I've long followed the writings of George Lakoff and the research / marketing of Anat Shenker-Osorio. I only wish more Democratic electeds and their campaign staff would, too :)

Thanks for spending your retirement standing up and fighting back.

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

Your recommendations would follow in the words of George and Anat. What is the opposition's memorable message or theme as opposed to MAGA.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

Here are just two examples of how to talk about what we ARE for...rather than always being on defense by allowing the Repubs to set the terms of discussion, by controlling the message frame:

https://youtu.be/5bqPelVLh2o

https://youtu.be/IJmeKazmxyc

But to be clear, it's not about a single acronym counter to MAGA. It's about speaking to the shared values of the supermajority of Americans (consistently/repeatedly) and also delivering on it.

If it HAD to be boiled down to a phrase/hashtag, it'd be: FREE America

Here's a Substack live if you're interested (Pro-tip, I always change the speed to 1.5X or 1.75X to faster viewing). Plus, there's a transcript for reading, if you prefer.

https://the.ink/p/watch-free-america

Happy Memorial Day, Ralph!

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Nancy Hines's avatar

Thank you BOTH for the thoughtful back-and-forth! I have a lifetime of ignorance to make up for: I’m one of the famous “I hate politics - let the people who know about it do it” kind of people. (To my eternal shame…) There’s a phrase in the Declaration of Independence that has grown to annoy me more and more… it’s at once, inspirational and now, horrifying: “We hold these truths to be self evident.” There’s nothing “self evident” about it…. Keep on doing what you’re doing. YOU’re inspiring!

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

thanks Natalie. I agree.

I write from primarily a midwest experience, majority in Iowa, born and raised in the south side of Chicago. In substack, like other social media, I must guard against sweeping generalization. They often receive feecback, but fail at my or others learning and changing.

I like the idea of a video, like the youth, being used across the country. Right wingers, in Iowa, several years ago, started gaslighting trans issues, along with immigration. Used in congressional and presidential campaigns--without a successful counter image. On each of the issues, we allowed opponents to 'brand' us.

I wrote about using FREEDOM as an acronym in a writing last year. I received okay feedback, but too long to fit on a hat and does not resonate with kitchen table issues.

I have friends and relatives who voted for Trump or did not vote. I have friends and relatives quick cynical about all govt and politics (even though they know I served 6 terms in the Iowa legislature.

I listen and talk with them (they are not Steve Bannon or Steve Miller types..

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Alan Peterson's avatar

I liked the conversation here between you and Ms. Burdick.

Agree completely with your comment about D Consultants.

Your points 2 and 3 seem like they're closely related. The behavior of some of our older D leaders does invite complaints about elitism, but I don't think it does us much harm because, in the end, it's merely a charge manufactured by Trump/MAGA. And their close association with elitist oligarchs invites counter charges of hypocrisy. We don't need to prolong its life by even discussing elitism (though my opinion on this is much less informed than yours).

Certainly agree that our party infrastructure has declined. For a moment I thought you might also be talking about Republican infrastructure but I doubt it. I feel like we owe the devil (his/its/their) due on this issue; though the Republicans have set their sights on treason by transforming itself into a fascist party, they have worked hard with dedicated, single-minded devotion for decades to achieve it.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

Indeed, as the astute legal scholar Elie Mystal noted, Repubs when faced with a loss NEVER retreat...they simply reload.

That explains how since Roe v. Wade they have looked for every path possible to criminalize and restrict access to reproductive freedoms for all but a handful of white, wealthy women (and the men who would be inconvenienced by their pregnancies), so they can then seek them in hypocritical secrecy.

We often blame the corrupt MAGA Justices for the Dobson decision, but if you follow the breadcrumbs backwards, you understand we wouldn't be here today, were it not for Tr*mp. Further back still, the Supreme Court would not be stacked with Federalist Society-cultists were it not for McConnell's confirmation machinations.

Yet we must peel the onion further back to a little-known state legislator in Mississippi, Becky Currie, who introduced an abortion ban in 2017, knowing full well it (or a clone by the ADF https://adflegal.org/article/what-you-may-not-know-how-adf-helped-overturn-roe-v-wade/), would make its way to be cherry-picked for the MAGA Justices' docket.

States, have been called "incubators for democracy" —but, like Jekyll and Hyde—there are two sides. MAGA Repub trifectas like MS are more "laboratories of autocracy" vs. democratic states like Massachusset where marriage equality was introduced, along with the Affordable Care Act.

It was Karl Rove's Redmap that gerrymandered away 1,000 state legislative seats in 2010, leading to the MS Repub trifecta which started in 2012 (MS had split party controlled-government before then, and even had a Democratic trifecta as recently as 2003).

Dems fell asleep in the states after Obama's historic win...but just as there was racist backlash after the Civil War/Reconstruction, the rise of black progress and affluence after WWI, and again in the 50s before the Civil Rights movement, the nation's long extant forces of bigotry lashed out again in the form of the billionaire-funded Tea Party, which has morphed into today's MAGA. But it's the same old tired racist, nativist, sexist and LGBTQ-hating dog whistles distracting/dividing us while they seek to bring their fascist fantasies to life.

For Dems to truly oppose this fascist regime, we must stand for something, not simply against something.

And that means being unabashedly FOR progress, justice, fairness, equality AND freedom...not constantly tacking to some non-existent or at best mercurial 'middle' that the Overton Window keeps shifting further and further right.

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Alan Peterson's avatar

Very much agree. Your last paragraph is inspired and directly responsible for my learning what the Overton Window is 😀. Thank you!

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

That’s so cool—thx for letting me know!

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

Thank you. Substack provides a path for exchanging ideas and disagreements in a forum superior to T or FB.

Bernie uses 'oligarchs' on his recent tour. Bernie has been on "Flagrant' podcast, which was interesting to see how he interacts with a Joe Roganish medium.

I have seen the stability of the Republican infrastructure in recent years in Iowa; in so far as the moderates have little space, at least in Iowa.

When I write, I am thinking of my friends who are no party, libertarian and/all cynical of all politics and politicians.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

Dems can't succeed in Fox universe

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PLawson85's avatar

The Democrats Messaging Wise have been completely Lost since Citizens United. A lot of the problem is that its core Brand took a Hard Left Social Justice turn in 2010.

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

If you have the time, you might find this this very detailed analysis of where voters and non-voters were/are relative to the 2024 election, worth reading.

https://www.weekendreading.net/p/the-re-emerging-anti-maga-majority

The narrative that the Dem party has moved too far left, could certainly be argued -- especially how much to the right/center, Bill Clinton and Obama already tacked.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

I live in France, where the Democrats would be a centrist party.

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Sam Finn's avatar

“the latest polling tells us less about Trump than it does about the catastrophic failure of not just Democratic campaign professionals, but also civil society and the media, to effectively inform voters of the consequences of the choice they had before them.”

I spent 30 years as a university professor (and many years before that as a student). The paragraph above is an incorrect - even if common - read of the situation.

As a teacher I learned early on of a crucial difference between “teaching” and “learning.”

“Teaching” - presenting information, suggesting connections and interpretations, offering exercises in thinking critically about what is seen, heard, or otherwise experienced - is something a teacher can do.

On the other hand, “learning” - internalizing and integrating what a teacher makes available - is something only the student can do. It is out of the hands of even the best teachers.

Teachers can facilitate learning, but they can’t learn for the student.

Last November close to 50% of the voting public made a choice. It was an informed choice: informed by 2017-2020, by Covid, by Jan 6, and by media coverage that was qualitatively superior to 2016 (even if it could have been better).

There are always students that refuse to learn. Blaming the teacher doesn’t shift responsibility. It does, however, make it more difficult to figure out the best way to move forward.

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Carl Selfe's avatar

The goal is to decimate the middle and lower classes to keep them sick and destitute. Then they are malleable. I detailed the CBO data before the CR bill came out of committee. The CBO projected the deficit at $52 trillion in 2035 without the new CR bill. I detail how it will actually be $60 trillion. Think $3 trillion annually in interest. https://hotbuttons.substack.com/p/over-budget-chaos?r=3m1bs

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Maia Ettinger's avatar

The liberals who disdain this country's voting population as permanently "center-right" are wholly mistaken. Were this the case, the Right would not be spending untold millions on voter suppression, gerrymandering, and undermining election integrity. The fault lies not with voters, but with a Democratic Party that will not advance an agenda of affordable housing, universal health care, debt-free education, and rigorous unionization, i.e., actually helping the multi-racial working class. Instead it stokes white male grievance politics to peel off support for the GOP, because it's led by people more aligned with their GOP colleagues than with its own base.

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Kim Stewart's avatar

Hi Maia, I'm a little late to the party but just discovered "Weekend Reading" this morning. The Democrats' won't advance those agendas because they're not part of the Democrats' platform.

Some do give lip service to them. In our two party system, only the Democratic party could feasibly get behind them -- but look at how they treated AOC, they let Mitch McConnell eat her alive. Bernie has a bit to say about his experience, too.

I vote for Democrats because they're not billionaire-captured fascists, and third party voting probably helped elect Trump, Musk and Peter Thiel.

What we need to do is literally take over the Democrats' infrastructure and steer that ship ourselves. We need a new coalition of the non MAGA majority.

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Ralph Rosenberg's avatar

Thanks again Natalie,

I strongly agree with the sentiment that we should never underestimate the power of our actions. Every small act of kindness creates a ripple effect that can change the world, even if we never see it or know it. That is why I participate in group or collective action

Cynicism is especially corrosive because it undermines the solidarity that group action requires. When activists themselves default to "nothing we do matters," it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.And Trump only fuels that cynicism, along with some activists from my political corner, too.

Algorithms reinforce the need for immediate gratification- - we're training ourselves to expect visible metrics for everything. Modeling sustained engagement might be one of the most powerful things my baby boomer generation can do to counter any cynicism

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Natalie Burdick's avatar

Hear, hear to modeling sustained engagement and NOT being obsessed with social media likes/shares/replies etc.

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Gordon Reynolds's avatar

Trump might have lost if we hadn’t an electoral college. Few of the recent republican presidents would have won without the electoral college advantage. It’s the most anti-democratic clause written into the constitution, and it was only put there to protect the horrible institution of slavery.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

I'm sorry for the world they are inheriting. I worked all my life to make things better in the future. When Trump was elected in 2016, my husband and I gave up and moved to France, where we feel much safer and more accepted. I passed the burnt-out torch. The rest of you will have to get your collective acts together if you care enough. However, Americans are among the most selfish and self-centered people I have ever encountered, and I have traveled around the world, tho never to East Asia.

Fortunately, we have no children, and most of our relatives belong on Mars with Musk.

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Alan Peterson's avatar

You sound very discouraged, but you've made some big changes in order to take care of yourself. Good on you!

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TheScot's avatar

They knew, they were warned. Elections have consequences and they are finding out.

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David J. Heslop's avatar

Wow, in-the-weeds but insightful guidance for Democrats if they’re listening, and they damn well better be.

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Diane Matza's avatar

This essay really spoke to me as someone who has a 57 year record of voting for democrats and recalls feeling only tepid enthusiasm for lots of them

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Jeannine's avatar

From this piece I gained better understanding what went wrong. I was empowered to call my representatives with more confidence and updated talking points.

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Carl Selfe's avatar

The annual deficit will be $2.5 trillion over each of the next 2 years. We need a tax cut like we need a hole in the head. The fiscal irresponsibility is unfathomable. https://hotbuttons.substack.com/p/the-25-trillion-annual-deficit-plan?r=3m1bs

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

The MAGA crowd would immolate themselves on Trump's corpse rather than abandon their delusions.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

I predict a 50% fall in the value of the dollar by the end of this year unless the super-rich absorb huge losses to maintain their power.

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PLawson85's avatar

Not just that, but an Economic Depression will be declared by the end of the year.

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Ronald Kirchem's avatar

agreed

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cartondw's avatar

Please read and repost these powerful words from the past:

"Terrible things are happening outside. Poor helpless people are being dragged out of their homes. Families are being torn apart. Men, women, and children are separated. Children come home from school to find that their parents have disappeared." - Diary of Anne Frank, January 13, 1943

We need to educate our family, friends and neighbors and stop history from repeating itself. We the people do have the power and we need to use our voices, before it is too late. We all need to post a yard signs across the US with the words: "WE THE PEOPLE DEMAND DEMOCRACY".

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