I wish you had included stats on enactment of voucher legislation, which eliminates separation of church and state. Almost every red state has vouchers, and they are as unpopular among red state voters as abortion restrictions. In red states that have held referenda, voters reject them by large margins. But the legislatures in Arizona, Florida, and Utah simply ignored the voters.
“Note that the Red state maternal mortality rate of 28.5 per 100,000 births would place it 42nd out of 48 OECD nations, between China and Argentina.4 “
This is shocking and should be stated more. It’s unacceptable that women in these states aren’t as safe as women in other states in the United States of America.
This will be a driving force in the elections in ‘24. The gop is the figurative dog that caught the car when it comes to abortion and FORCED BIRTH.
We as individuals should be the only ones who choose the trajectory of our own lives. Not anyone else. Live and let live goddamnit.
The degree to which youth in red America separates from their parents' generation I suspect will depend on their ability to escape from their parents' evangelical churches.
I think another divide is a generational one. Young people see the world very differently than older people for the most part. It seems technology may broaden this as young people have so much more information via the internet. It would be very interesting to compare ideology of red nation to blue nation through the lens of our youth. Little things like young women demanding an education so as not to be tied to domestic chores or the support of a partner is showing up as women dominating college enrollment. This flip is in our younger generation. And it seems the acceptance of the LGBTQ community is higher in our youth. As well they seem united in protecting our environment given they will be living in the world long after the older generation dominating our politics right now are gone. It would be so interesting to fast forward 20 years to see how our country is then. Alas the change to an authoritarian society may prolong this seeming wave of progress for our future.
This is a great piece, very thorough and clear-eyed and well-supported with evidence. So rare these days; thank you!
I wonder whether the data look even more stark if one divides states like VA, IL, AZ, OR, WA into Blue/Red geographic territories? (Northeast VA vs western and southern parts of VA; Northern vs Southern AZ and IL, east-west in WA and OR). If we ever declare/reorganize into new nations, might these splits would be culturally/practically meaningful to discern/identify?
The challenge with claiming that there is such a political divide between two groups of states is that the "two nations" thesis can't explain historical changes. 30 years, California was far from the reliable blue state it is today; and it was only a few cycles ago that Florida was a swing state. Today's WaPo article on how parties target states in presidential campaigns is a good illustration of this (Gift link: https://wapo.st/3uPgTWd).
I absolutely worry about the effects of GOP control in the Southeast -- that's where poor people don't have access to expanded Medicaid, and it's the heart of anti-abortion policies right now. But it's not inevitable, as Georgia's statewide votes have shown in 2020 and 2022. Imagine, for example, if Beto O'Rourke hadn't tried to challenge Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott, but instead gone directly after Lt. Gov. Patrick. I think he'd have had a good shot in both years, and since the Texas Lt Gov controls the state senate agenda, things would be very different now. That's an individual choice of Beto's, that he went for shinier brass rings rather than an office that could've benefited Texans much more clearly.
Mike, I have a quibble with the section on Labor law, the one that starts, "It is no coincidence that not one state in Blue Nation has right to work laws (which make it extremely difficult to organize unions)...."
New York has "at will" employment -- doesn't that make this dark blue state a right-to-work state?
Michael,
I wish you had included stats on enactment of voucher legislation, which eliminates separation of church and state. Almost every red state has vouchers, and they are as unpopular among red state voters as abortion restrictions. In red states that have held referenda, voters reject them by large margins. But the legislatures in Arizona, Florida, and Utah simply ignored the voters.
Diane Ravitch
“Note that the Red state maternal mortality rate of 28.5 per 100,000 births would place it 42nd out of 48 OECD nations, between China and Argentina.4 “
This is shocking and should be stated more. It’s unacceptable that women in these states aren’t as safe as women in other states in the United States of America.
This will be a driving force in the elections in ‘24. The gop is the figurative dog that caught the car when it comes to abortion and FORCED BIRTH.
We as individuals should be the only ones who choose the trajectory of our own lives. Not anyone else. Live and let live goddamnit.
The degree to which youth in red America separates from their parents' generation I suspect will depend on their ability to escape from their parents' evangelical churches.
I think another divide is a generational one. Young people see the world very differently than older people for the most part. It seems technology may broaden this as young people have so much more information via the internet. It would be very interesting to compare ideology of red nation to blue nation through the lens of our youth. Little things like young women demanding an education so as not to be tied to domestic chores or the support of a partner is showing up as women dominating college enrollment. This flip is in our younger generation. And it seems the acceptance of the LGBTQ community is higher in our youth. As well they seem united in protecting our environment given they will be living in the world long after the older generation dominating our politics right now are gone. It would be so interesting to fast forward 20 years to see how our country is then. Alas the change to an authoritarian society may prolong this seeming wave of progress for our future.
This is a great piece, very thorough and clear-eyed and well-supported with evidence. So rare these days; thank you!
I wonder whether the data look even more stark if one divides states like VA, IL, AZ, OR, WA into Blue/Red geographic territories? (Northeast VA vs western and southern parts of VA; Northern vs Southern AZ and IL, east-west in WA and OR). If we ever declare/reorganize into new nations, might these splits would be culturally/practically meaningful to discern/identify?
The challenge with claiming that there is such a political divide between two groups of states is that the "two nations" thesis can't explain historical changes. 30 years, California was far from the reliable blue state it is today; and it was only a few cycles ago that Florida was a swing state. Today's WaPo article on how parties target states in presidential campaigns is a good illustration of this (Gift link: https://wapo.st/3uPgTWd).
I absolutely worry about the effects of GOP control in the Southeast -- that's where poor people don't have access to expanded Medicaid, and it's the heart of anti-abortion policies right now. But it's not inevitable, as Georgia's statewide votes have shown in 2020 and 2022. Imagine, for example, if Beto O'Rourke hadn't tried to challenge Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott, but instead gone directly after Lt. Gov. Patrick. I think he'd have had a good shot in both years, and since the Texas Lt Gov controls the state senate agenda, things would be very different now. That's an individual choice of Beto's, that he went for shinier brass rings rather than an office that could've benefited Texans much more clearly.
Mike, I have a quibble with the section on Labor law, the one that starts, "It is no coincidence that not one state in Blue Nation has right to work laws (which make it extremely difficult to organize unions)...."
New York has "at will" employment -- doesn't that make this dark blue state a right-to-work state?
"Putting aside upper New England, all but one of the 21 most rural states in the country are Red states, and the exception is Wisconsin. "
That's a big exception!
Democrats currently hold Senate seats in 5 of the 9 most rural states - #1 (VT), #2 (ME), #3 (WV), #5 (MT), #9 (NH) - and recently won in #8 (AL).
Doesn't mess with your overall thesis, but some reasons for optimism (and trying)