These are observations I never see reflected in polls. I’m not a statistician or a psychologist, but why is Trump polling well enough for this year to be a horse race?
Fewer ppl show up to Trump’s rallies&those who show up frequently thin out before Trump’s done ranting.
Very few show up for Vance rallies vs Walz.
Trump looks terrible. It’s not just aging. He looks like he’s led a life of excess. He’s obese, saggy. The things Trump does to try to remedy his aging appearance, the fake tan, the frizzy over processed hair make things worse. Than there’s the gait, mispronouncing of words, forgotten names.
I don’t think the folks at Heritage give a shit if Trump knows what’s going on, but Trump’s appearance&behavior has to affect opinion of voters.
I know we are very tribal.
However, the overturning of Roe. The mistreatment of women in reproductive crisis, Trump’s coarse pronouncements of VP Harris past, disgust most women.
After 16, I will never say never, particularly with the outdated Electoral College, but Trump is now older, plainly has dementia&a known failed commodity.
I’m hoping those things are enough to propel Kamala Harris to the presidency
Came here from Sabato's. Thanks for the insightful piece.
I would be curious to know if 1) tightened poll margins in swing states are reflected in other states and 2) if that number tells us about the current state of polling.
Considering that 50% of the population lives in 9-10 states, wouldn't the margins in states like CA, NY, IL, etc. have to be much tighter and/or Margins in TX, FL, and OH much wider and/or margins in the 35 non-swing, small pop states decidedly more Trump-leaning than in 2020 in order to result in a tied national race?
Perhaps there's not enough polling or I'm missing something?
I live in Wisconsin, do politics here, and write about it. Respectfully, your conclusion doesn’t follow. Wisconsin about 87 percent white and a substantial number of voters live in small towns, exurbs, and small clties. The area that will likely determine our outcome is the 3rd Congressional, the Western part of the state, which is even more white and agricultural and voted for Trump and a despicable R congressman (we have a great candidate, Rebecca Cooke, please support her). How can you simply conclude that because red areas are red and blue are blue we will win Wisconsin (and MI and PA)? The only thing that will win here is tremendous hard work, the kind of strategy Podhorzer is proposing and some luck. Either way it will likely be within a point. Wishful thinking isn’t helpful.
This technical analysis does not reflect any statistical review of the states which will decide the electoral college, which we must recognize is the only result that matters. Thus, why do we care that racists in Alabama and about 10 other states favor Trump by 20-40 percentage points, or conversely that liberals on both coasts favor her? So with all respect to the brilliant author (who really is brilliant), what will be the result in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? And what about NC, GA, FL, AZ, NV and Omaha for one vote and Northern Maine for the other vote? I respectfully submit that Harris will win the Big Three, plus NC, AZ, NV, and GA and thereby the EC by a very substantial margin!
End of speculation! (And split the two I-vote districts)!
By the way, Dems have massive voter registration and turnout efforts underway among women, Blacks, Latinos, South Asian s and younger voters in all the key states
If he were to win he would definitely push his power to the outer limits constantly and the SCOTUS will be first incredibly busy and secondly humiliated by what they should have seen coming!
Fascinating. How much effect do you think the MSM "sanewashing" of trump is having on the views of the less informed electorate? MSM is slowly beginning to pontificate on Project 2025, usually with a big paragraph on trump's "disavowing" it. But I agree it is too abstract.
Take for example "Eliminate the Dept of Education." For young voters, and particularly minority young voters, that is up there in the sky. Assume for the moment a fair number of those young voters have even younger siblings still in school. Do they realize that P2025 would allow all federal funding of schools (no, it wouldn't stop, just come without strings) to be used for school vouchers, thus draining even more funds from the public schools? And that those vouchers could be used for extreme religious schools or, even worse, for those with kids already in private schools, but now able to get tuition paid by taxpayers? The latter are already eating up the voucher moneys in several states.
Whatever the young voter thought of his/her public school education, good or ill, it will be getting exponentially worse for the siblings or younger friends. How do we get this across?
These are observations I never see reflected in polls. I’m not a statistician or a psychologist, but why is Trump polling well enough for this year to be a horse race?
Fewer ppl show up to Trump’s rallies&those who show up frequently thin out before Trump’s done ranting.
Very few show up for Vance rallies vs Walz.
Trump looks terrible. It’s not just aging. He looks like he’s led a life of excess. He’s obese, saggy. The things Trump does to try to remedy his aging appearance, the fake tan, the frizzy over processed hair make things worse. Than there’s the gait, mispronouncing of words, forgotten names.
I don’t think the folks at Heritage give a shit if Trump knows what’s going on, but Trump’s appearance&behavior has to affect opinion of voters.
I know we are very tribal.
However, the overturning of Roe. The mistreatment of women in reproductive crisis, Trump’s coarse pronouncements of VP Harris past, disgust most women.
After 16, I will never say never, particularly with the outdated Electoral College, but Trump is now older, plainly has dementia&a known failed commodity.
I’m hoping those things are enough to propel Kamala Harris to the presidency
Came here from Sabato's. Thanks for the insightful piece.
I would be curious to know if 1) tightened poll margins in swing states are reflected in other states and 2) if that number tells us about the current state of polling.
Considering that 50% of the population lives in 9-10 states, wouldn't the margins in states like CA, NY, IL, etc. have to be much tighter and/or Margins in TX, FL, and OH much wider and/or margins in the 35 non-swing, small pop states decidedly more Trump-leaning than in 2020 in order to result in a tied national race?
Perhaps there's not enough polling or I'm missing something?
This is great!
I live in Wisconsin, do politics here, and write about it. Respectfully, your conclusion doesn’t follow. Wisconsin about 87 percent white and a substantial number of voters live in small towns, exurbs, and small clties. The area that will likely determine our outcome is the 3rd Congressional, the Western part of the state, which is even more white and agricultural and voted for Trump and a despicable R congressman (we have a great candidate, Rebecca Cooke, please support her). How can you simply conclude that because red areas are red and blue are blue we will win Wisconsin (and MI and PA)? The only thing that will win here is tremendous hard work, the kind of strategy Podhorzer is proposing and some luck. Either way it will likely be within a point. Wishful thinking isn’t helpful.
Did you mean to reply to me? I'm just saying that it's an insightful newsletter...?
This technical analysis does not reflect any statistical review of the states which will decide the electoral college, which we must recognize is the only result that matters. Thus, why do we care that racists in Alabama and about 10 other states favor Trump by 20-40 percentage points, or conversely that liberals on both coasts favor her? So with all respect to the brilliant author (who really is brilliant), what will be the result in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? And what about NC, GA, FL, AZ, NV and Omaha for one vote and Northern Maine for the other vote? I respectfully submit that Harris will win the Big Three, plus NC, AZ, NV, and GA and thereby the EC by a very substantial margin!
End of speculation! (And split the two I-vote districts)!
By the way, Dems have massive voter registration and turnout efforts underway among women, Blacks, Latinos, South Asian s and younger voters in all the key states
If he were to win he would definitely push his power to the outer limits constantly and the SCOTUS will be first incredibly busy and secondly humiliated by what they should have seen coming!
Fascinating. How much effect do you think the MSM "sanewashing" of trump is having on the views of the less informed electorate? MSM is slowly beginning to pontificate on Project 2025, usually with a big paragraph on trump's "disavowing" it. But I agree it is too abstract.
Take for example "Eliminate the Dept of Education." For young voters, and particularly minority young voters, that is up there in the sky. Assume for the moment a fair number of those young voters have even younger siblings still in school. Do they realize that P2025 would allow all federal funding of schools (no, it wouldn't stop, just come without strings) to be used for school vouchers, thus draining even more funds from the public schools? And that those vouchers could be used for extreme religious schools or, even worse, for those with kids already in private schools, but now able to get tuition paid by taxpayers? The latter are already eating up the voucher moneys in several states.
Whatever the young voter thought of his/her public school education, good or ill, it will be getting exponentially worse for the siblings or younger friends. How do we get this across?
Trump widens already commanding lead over Kamala with new all-time polling high in Democrat-pollster Nate Silver’s electoral college prediction model:
🟥 Trump: 64.4%
🟦 Harris: 35.3%
This isn’t a “lead”, it’s a betting probability based on a model.