G. Elliott Morris, of the essential Strength in Numbers, joined me for a deep dive (with plenty of charts) into Democrats’ prospects for the midterms, Trump’s approval, and more.
We covered:
Why the voters who decide elections tend to be the ones who don’t love either party — and why those voters keep favoring Democrats in the Trump era.
Answers to the question in Elliott’s post, “Trump is 20+ points underwater. So why aren’t Democrats up 20 for the midterms?” One reason is that voters who “somewhat disapprove” of Trump are not reliably pro-Democrat; they include many Trump voters and non-voters who are feeling left behind economically.
Many reasons that 2026 looks good for Democrats. For instance, midterms tend to energize supporters of the party that lost the last election, and people who stayed home in 2024 favor Democrats. But what’s happening now is also more than just a “thermostatic” effect; it’s a reaction to real and terrible things that the Trump regime is doing.
Elliott’s preliminary voter file analysis from the Arizona CD-7 special election and New Jersey governor’s race, which found that partisan turnout differential (more Democrats than Republicans showing up to vote) accounted for the majority of Democrats’ gains.
The frustrating lack of nuance and one-dimensionality from those who counsel Democrats to “moderate” on policy. (Everything looks like a nail if you’re a hammer salesman.)
Other links:
“The six big events that have dragged down Donald Trump’s approval rating” (Strength in Numbers)
“Red Wave, Blue Undertow” (Weekend Reading)
“The Democratic Party is about to make the most predictable mistake in American politics” (Lee Drutman)
