Anat opened this week’s show with a recap of her essential new piece, “Don’t Make the Argument.” (Big thanks to Anat for stepping in solo when I had to arrive late, and for navigating technical issues with the chat with her usual grace and good humor.) Her piece argues that every time Democrats have been advised to go quiet on something, it has backfired — and that only saying the thing, out loud, over years, can actually move the ground towards the change we need. She traces the through-line from Clinton-era triangulation, to the “euphemism imperative” around abortion, to the refusal to argue that immigration is good, and now to “climate hushing.” Seriously, read it if you haven’t yet.
Anat also talked to this week’s special guest, Paigelynne Gonyea — a poll worker and content creator from Syracuse, New York, who was threatened by DHS over a January Instagram post that simply named the ICE agent (Jonathan Ross) who killed Renee Good. DHS agents sought her out at her polling place and warned that she would be in violation of federal law unless she took the post down. Instead of complying, Paigelynne didn’t just keep her post up — she reshared it and spoke out about it. This created a classic Streisand Effect, where the attention DHS tried to bury instead went viral, bringing renewed scrutiny back to the ICE murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Paigelynne talked about why she spoke up, how she’s not the only one being targeted by ICE for her speech (but is happy to be the loudest one), and what’s next for her — from a possible First Amendment lawsuit against the government to a new cookbook to be published soon.
Once I finally got on, we went straight to the midterms — specifically, what the New York Times’ new Senate battleground polling really tells us about Democrats’ chances to net four seats to flip the Senate. Any realistic path includes winning two of five red states (Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, or Nebraska). But as I outlined here, the path to getting there isn’t about convincing Trump voters to switch sides (although some undoubtedly will). It’s about turning out the still-vast pool of anti-MAGA voters who have proved that they will show up to vote against Trump or MAGA when the stakes are clear. This especially includes what I’m calling the “one and dones,” who showed up to vote against Trump once or twice in 2018 or 2020, but dropped off after that thanks to disillusionment with Biden and Democrats.
Every pollster has to make educated guesses about how many people who sat out 2024 will turn out this time. In Texas, the Times modeled roughly 10% new voters, consistent with 2022, 2014, and 2010 — but not with 2018, when new voters were 20% of turnout and broke for Beto by 20 points, which is exactly what made that race close. The question for 2026 is whether this cycle’s anti-MAGA turnout looks more like 2018 or more like the quieter midterms around it — and the early signs, including a real shift in party ID among previously unaffiliated voters, point toward the former. So forget the margin of error. What matters now is the margin of effort.
