Chris Cillizza invited me to chat on Substack Live about my latest post, “How Trump “Won”: The Anesthetized Anti-MAGA Majority.” It was a great conversation, and I hope you’ll watch the recording. (Apologies for the shaky camera on my end!)
As I said here, there’s an old joke about how if a bear attacks your campsite, you don’t have to outrun the bear; you just have to outrun the other campers. But just because you outrun the other campers, that doesn’t mean you’re ready for the Olympics. That’s basically the state of our politics today. Neither party can really “win” elections anymore; they can only be the “not-loser.” Americans keep bouncing back and forth between the two parties because they’re not happy with their choices or with the system.
That’s the story of why Trump “won.” He didn't speak to the soul of the nation or win mass converts to MAGA. He had the luck of not being the incumbent, and he benefited from greatly reduced public alarm about the threat he posed to the country. In 2020, that alarm was ringing in surround sound, resulting in record turnout and Democratic wins. In 2024 it had become background noise, as civil society and most Democrats failed to take action commensurate with such an existential threat. If you cry “Fire!” in a crowded theatre but keep sitting and eating your popcorn, people won’t take you seriously.
On another note, please join me on Thursday, January 16 from 1-3pm for a virtual event hosted by the Center for American Progress and Court Accountability that will focus on the connection between courts and authoritarian movements at home and around the world. History shows that when the courts fall, liberal democracy is soon to follow, and with the Supreme Court’s recent anti-democratic turn, now is the appropriate time to have this important conversation. RSVP here.
Click here for more of my writings about the ongoing constitutional coup by the Roberts Court and the Federalist Society.
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